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国泰君安任泽平:中国经济目前更接近W型

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月19日 19:55:27
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(  最)(近)(关)(于)(中)(国)(经)(济)(反)(弹)(还)(是)(反)(转)(、L型)(还)(是)(U型)(、通)(胀)(会)(不)(会)(来)(、企)(业)(盈)(利)(能)(否)(改)(善)(、改)(革)(能)(否)(落)(地)(攻)(坚)(、A股)(见)(底)(还)(是)(向)(上)(突)(破)(向)(下)(破)(位)(等)(产)(生)(了)(广)(泛)(的)(讨)(论)(和)(争)(议)(。国)(泰)(君)(安)(证)(券)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(任)(泽)(平)(发)(表)(报)(告)(认)(为)(,无)(论)(是)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(的)(预)(测)((比)(如)(即)(将)(U型)(复)(苏)()还)(是)(过)(于)(悲)(观)(的)(预)(测)((比)(如)(即)(将)(硬)(着)(陆)(或)(崩)(溃)()可)(能)(都)(是)(错)(的)(,因)(为)(还)(未)(进)(行)(出)(清)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(,尚)(不)(具)(备)(再)(出)(发)(的)(能)(力)(,同)(时)(,以)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(家)(底)(,再)(托)(底)(1-2年)(问)(题)(不)(大)(。由)(于)(补)(库)(、微)(刺)(激)(、地)(产)(回)(升)(等)(引)(发)(小)(周)(期)(反)(弹)(,但)(谈)(U型)(反)(转)(还)(早)(,更)(接)(近)(于)(底)(部)(有)(小)(周)(期)(波)(动)(的)(W型)(。以)(下)(为)(报)(告)(观)(点)(。
  1.未)(来)(经)(济)(L型)(、U型)(、W型)(还)(是)(硬)(着)(陆)(?
  我)(们)(曾)(在)(2015年)(4月)(前)(后)(提)(出)(,随)(着)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(见)(底)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(可)(能)(从)(快)(速)(下)(滑)(期)(步)(入)(缓)(慢)(探)(底)(期)(,未)(来)(3年)(经)(济)(L型)(。后)(来)(经)(济)(L型)(的)(判)(断)(成)(为)(主)(流)(看)(法)(,并)(被)(中)(央)(采)(纳)(。
  近)(期)(市)(场)(对)(未)(来)(经)(济)(增)(速)(是)(L型)(、U型)(、W型)(还)(是)(硬)(着)(陆)(出)(现)(广)(泛)(分)(歧)(。由)(于)(政)(策)(微)(刺)(激)(、信)(贷)(超)(预)(期)(投)(放)(、房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(回)(升)(、企)(业)(补)(库)(等)(原)(因)(,经)(济)(出)(现)(小)(周)(期)(回)(升)(,有)(乐)(观)(观)(点)(甚)(至)(认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(已)(经)(开)(启)(复)(苏)(;但)(是)(穆)(迪)(、标)(普)(将)(中)(国)(主)(权)(评)(级)(的)(展)(望)(由)(稳)(定)(调)(整)(至)(负)(面)(,认)(为)(未)(来)(中)(国)(政)(府)(和)(企)(业)(的)(财)(务)(杠)(杆)(会)(恶)(化)(、经)(济)(增)(长)(过)(度)(依)(赖)(不)(可)(持)(续)(的)(信)(贷)(和)(投)(资)(,这)(将)(引)(发)(经)(济)(增)(长)(更)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(滑)(。
  2014年)(房)(地)(产)(长)(周)(期)(拐)(点)(出)(现)(以)(后)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(经)(历)(了)(一)(轮)(快)(速)(下)(滑)(,但)(是)(宏)(观)(和)(微)(观)(数)(据)(明)(显)(背)(离)(且)(裂)(口)(不)(断)(张)(大)(。官)(方)(公)(布)(的)(GDP增)(速)(从)(2014年)(一)(季)(度)(到)(2015年)(四)(季)(度)(八)(个)(季)(度)(,分)(别)(为)(7.3%、7.4%、7.2%、7.2%、7.0%、7.0%、6.9%、6.8%。官)(方)(GDP增)(速)(基)(本)(不)(波)(动)(。
  我)(们)(再)(来)(看)(一)(下)(微)(观)(数)(据)(:
  1)2014年)(房)(地)(产)(长)(周)(期)(拐)(点)(出)(现)(以)(来)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(从)(2014年)(初)(19.3%一)(口)(气)(跌)(到)(2015年)(12月)(份)(-1.9%(2015年)(全)(年)(增)(长)(1%),跌)(了)(20多)(个)(点)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(占)(整)(个)(中)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(1/4,再)(加)(上)(房)(地)(产)(所)(支)(撑)(的)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(、基)(建)(投)(资)(等)(相)(关)(投)(资)(占)(整)(个)(中)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(一)(半)(。
  2)2014年)(5月)(美)(元)(走)(强)(以)(来)(,欧)(元)(、日)(元)(、新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(货)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(普)(遍)(大)(幅)(贬)(值)(,人)(民)(币)(锚)(定)(美)(元)(成)(为)(世)(界)(第)(二)(大)(强)(势)(货)(币)(,出)(口)(受)(人)(民)(币)(高)(估)(影)(响)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(。出)(口)(2014年)(全)(年)(6%的)(增)(长)(,2015年)(-2.8%,2016年)(1-2月)(累)(计)(-17.8%。
  3)2014年)(5月)(美)(元)(走)(强)(以)(来)(,大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(暴)(跌)(,企)(业)(去)(库)(,规)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(库)(存)(从)(7.4%降)(到)(2016年)(1-2月)(的)(0.7%。
  4)发)(电)(量)(、铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(从)(正)(增)(长)(降)(到)(负)(增)(长)(。
  随)(着)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(、出)(口)(、库)(存)(等)(数)(据)(触)(底)(,我)(们)(倾)(向)(于)(认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(已)(进)(入)(L型)(的)(降)(幅)(收)(敛)(的)(底)(部)(探)(明)(期)(。需)(要)(说)(明)(的)(是)(:
  第)(一)(,这)(种)(L型)(是)(指)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(真)(实)(运)(行)(情)(况)(。根)(据)(代)(表)(性)(工)(业)(产)(品)(产)(量)(拟)(合)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(真)(实)(的)(GDP增)(速)(可)(能)(在)(5%左)(右)(。我)(们)(在)(2014年)(7月)(曾)(提)(出)(“新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(”的)(预)(测)(,目)(前)(已)(经)(验)(证)(一)(半)(,“5%”已)(实)(现)(,能)(否)(实)(现)(“新)(5%”还)(需)(要)(观)(察)(改)(革)(推)(进)(及)(随)(后)(的)(红)(利)(释)(放)(。
  第)(二)(,无)(论)(是)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(的)(预)(测)((比)(如)(中)(国)(经)(济)(即)(将)(U型)(周)(期)(复)(苏)()还)(是)(过)(于)(悲)(观)(的)(预)(测)((比)(如)(中)(国)(经)(济)(即)(将)(硬)(着)(陆)(或)(崩)(溃)()可)(能)(都)(是)(错)(的)(,以)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(家)(底)(,再)(托)(底)(1-2年)(问)(题)(不)(大)(,同)(时)(,因)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(还)(未)(进)(行)(出)(清)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(,尚)(不)(具)(备)(再)(出)(发)(的)(能)(力)(。
  因)(此)(,未)(来)(3年)(经)(济)(更)(有)(可)(能)(是)(L型)(,中)(间)(会)(由)(于)(补)(库)(、微)(刺)(激)(、地)(产)(销)(量)(投)(资)(回)(升)(等)(引)(发)(小)(周)(期)(反)(弹)(,但)(谈)(U型)(反)(转)(还)(早)(,更)(接)(近)(于)(底)(部)(有)(小)(周)(期)(波)(动)(的)(W型)(。
  在)(经)(济)(L型)(底)(部)(调)(整)(过)(程)(中)(,需)(要)(通)(过)(减)(税)(、放)(松)(管)(制)(、保)(护)(私)(人)(产)(权)(、鼓)(励)(创)(新)(、破)(旧)(立)(新)(等)(政)(策)(呵)(护)(,让)(企)(业)(和)(居)(民)(微)(观)(主)(体)(休)(养)(生)(息)(。
  2.刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(,经)(济)(能)(重)(回)(高)(增)(长)(吗)(?
  我)(们)(曾)(在)(2014-2015年)(预)(测)(“未)(来)(十)(年)(一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(、三)(四)(线)(涨)(不)(动)(、房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(零)(增)(长)(”。由)(于)(货)(币)(超)(发)(和)(股)(市)(转)(熊)(资)(金)(涌)(出)(,深)(圳)(、上)(海)(等)(地)(房)(价)(提)(前)(9年)(完)(成)(了)(翻)(番)(的)(任)(务)(。
  随)(着)(一)(线)(核)(心)(二)(线)(房)(地)(产)(销)(量)(价)(格)(回)(升)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(增)(速)(从)(2015年)(12月)(的)(-1.9%回)(升)(到)(2016年)(1-2月)(的)(3%。市)(场)(有)(观)(点)(认)(为)(,在)(房)(地)(产)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(下)(,经)(济)(将)(重)(回)(高)(增)(长)(甚)(至)(U型)(复)(苏)(。
  我)(们)(判)(断)(,依)(靠)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(重)(回)(经)(济)(高)(增)(长)(的)(时)(代)(已)(经)(一)(去)(不)(复)(返)(了)(。
  房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(,短)(期)(看)(金)(融)(,长)(期)(看)(人)(口)(。2014年)(房)(地)(产)(长)(周)(期)(拐)(点)(出)(现)(。
  20-50岁)(买)(房)(人)(群)(开)(始)(出)(现)(净)(减)(少)(,曲)(线)(的)(右)(侧)(类)(似)(于)(1990年)(以)(后)(的)(日)(本)(,十)(次)(危)(机)(九)(次)(地)(产)(。
  中)(国)(一)(线)(核)(心)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(占)(比)(20%-30%,三)(四)(线)(占)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(的)(70%-80%,在)(一)(二)(线)(销)(售)(和)(土)(地)(购)(置)(回)(暖)(、三)(四)(线)(库)(面)(临)(漫)(长)(去)(库)(压)(力)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(有)(望)(小)(周)(期)(反)(弹)(到)(5%左)(右)(,但)(不)(可)(能)(重)(回)(10%以)(上)(的)(高)(增)(长)(时)(代)(。
  1978年)(城)(镇)(化)(率)(仅)(17.9%,2015年)(城)(镇)(化)(率)(已)(经)(达)(到)(56.1%,考)(虑)(到)(全)(国)(农)(民)(工)(总)(量)(27747万)(人)(,很)(多)(是)(夫)(妇)(在)(城)(里)(打)(工)(,子)(女)(和)(老)(人)(在)(农)(村)(留)(守)(,按)(照)(家)(庭)(而)(非)(常)(住)(人)(口)(统)(计)(的)(中)(国)(城)(镇)(化)(率)(可)(能)(已)(经)(超)(过)(60%,未)(来)(城)(镇)(化)(进)(程)(将)(放)(缓)(,未)(来)(核)(心)(是)(解)(决)(农)(民)(工)(市)(民)(化)(和)(公)(共)(服)(务)(供)(给)(的)(问)(题)(。
  近)(期)(随)(着)(一)(二)(线)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(新)(政)(出)(台)(,一)(二)(线)(房)(地)(产)(销)(量)(和)(价)(格)(有)(望)(从)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(步)(入)(缓)(慢)(上)(涨)(阶)(段)(,预)(计)(2季)(度)(前)(后)(将)(看)(到)(此)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(回)(升)(至)(5%左)(右)(之)(后)(见)(顶)(。
  3.此)(轮)(补)(库)(周)(期)(能)(走)(多)(远)(?
  存)(货)(在)(微)(观)(上)(是)(连)(接)(企)(业)(生)(产)(与)(市)(场)(需)(求)(之)(间)(的)(缓)(冲)(带)(,在)(宏)(观)(上)(是)(连)(接)(生)(产)(侧)(和)(需)(求)(侧)(经)(济)(增)(长)(形)(势)(的)(平)(衡)(项)(。存)(货)(变)(动)(既)(可)(能)(是)(企)(业)(基)(于)(预)(期)(的)(主)(动)(调)(整)(,也)(可)(能)(是)(由)(于)(判)(断)(失)(当)(而)(造)(成)(的)(被)(动)(积)(累)(。一)(轮)(完)(整)(的)(补)(库)(去)(库)(周)(期)(平)(均)(3年)(左)(右)(,但)(是)(自)(2010年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(以)(来)(,在)(经)(济)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(性)(放)(缓)(压)(力)(下)(,存)(货)(周)(期)(形)(态)(发)(生)(改)(变)(,“去)(库)(长)(、补)(库)(短)(”,补)(库)(周)(期)(的)(高)(度)(越)(来)(越)(低)(,库)(存)(对)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(影)(响)(越)(来)(越)(微)(弱)(,逐)(步)(让)(位)(于)(人)(口)(周)(期)(、房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(、产)(能)(周)(期)(等)(势)(大)(力)(沉)(的)(长)(周)(期)(。因)(此)(,可)(以)(得)(出)(一)(个)(基)(本)(结)(论)(,在)(人)(口)(、地)(产)(、产)(能)(等)(决)(定)(经)(济)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(的)(长)(周)(期)(性)(力)(量)(不)(变)(时)(,存)(货)(短)(周)(期)(调)(整)(对)(经)(济)(波)(动)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,比)(如)(1992-2010;但)(是)(,一)(旦)(长)(周)(期)(趋)(势)(性)(力)(量)(启)(动)(,存)(货)(短)(周)(期)(调)(整)(对)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(影)(响)(趋)(弱)(,比)(如)(2010-2016年)(。
  企)(业)(补)(库)(和)(去)(库)(行)(为)(主)(要)(受)(需)(求)(预)(期)(和)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(驱)(动)(。存)(货)(变)(动)(是)(导)(致)(市)(场)(经)(济)(国)(家)(短)(期)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(,企)(业)(为)(了)(平)(滑)(生)(产)(销)(售)(的)(季)(节)(性)(波)(动)(、规)(避)(原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(风)(险)(以)(及)(在)(价)(格)(波)(动)(中)(获)(利)(,均)(需)(要)(进)(行)(存)(货)(调)(整)(,它)(是)(企)(业)(在)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(中)(的)(自)(主)(行)(为)(。正)(确)(看)(待)(存)(货)(变)(动)(现)(象)(,加)(强)(对)(我)(国)(库)(存)(调)(整)(周)(期)(特)(点)(及)(其)(影)(响)(机)(制)(的)(研)(究)(和)(认)(识)(,并)(对)(受)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(和)(增)(长)(预)(期)(推)(动)(的)(两)(种)(库)(存)(增)(加)(要)(有)(所)(区)(别)(,有)(助)(于)(精)(准)(研)(判)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(形)(势)(。
  2016年)(初)(以)(来)(,受)(美)(元)(指)(数)(走)(软)(、大)(宗)(反)(弹)(、中)(国)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(超)(预)(期)(、房)(地)(产)(销)(量)(投)(资)(反)(弹)(、供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(、去)(库)(进)(入)(尾)(声)(、春)(季)(开)(工)(等)(带)(动)(,市)(场)(对)(新)(一)(轮)(补)(库)(周)(期)(预)(期)(较)(高)(。3月)(PMI购)(进)(价)(格)(指)(数)(反)(弹)(到)(55.3,比)(上)(月)(大)(幅)(回)(升)(5.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,螺)(纹)(钢)(、铁)(矿)(石)(等)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(反)(弹)(。PMI原)(材)(料)(库)(存)(指)(数)(反)(弹)(到)(48.2,比)(上)(月)(回)(升)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  未)(来)(企)(业)(补)(库)(活)(动)(主)(要)(是)(受)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(和)(周)(期)(回)(升)(预)(期)(推)(动)(。考)(虑)(到)(近)(期)(经)(济)(回)(升)(主)(要)(是)(经)(济)(L型)(大)(背)(景)(下)(的)(小)(周)(期)(回)(升)(,缺)(乏)(足)(够)(需)(求)(配)(合)(的)(企)(业)(库)(存)(增)(加)(及)(其)(带)(来)(的)(生)(产)(活)(动)(不)(具)(有)(可)(持)(续)(性)(。
  根)(据)(历)(史)(经)(验)(,企)(业)(库)(存)(调)(整)(周)(期)(大)(约)(为)(2~4个)(季)(度)(。由)(于)(当)(前)(库)(存)(水)(平)(处)(在)(历)(史)(底)(部)(,如)(果)(从)(2016年)(初)(算)(起)(,补)(库)(周)(期)(有)(望)(延)(续)(到)(3季)(度)(前)(后)(。2010年)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(以)(来)(,补)(库)(周)(期)(越)(来)(越)(弱)(,高)(度)(一)(波)(比)(一)(波)(低)(,预)(计)(此)(次)(补)(库)(周)(期)(可)(能)(是)(过)(去)(十)(年)(最)(弱)(的)(一)(次)(,一)(线)(房)(市)(调)(控)(、两)(会)(后)(传)(统)(行)(业)(复)(工)(、过)(剩)(产)(能)(恢)(复)(生)(产)(等)(将)(制)(约)(此)(轮)(补)(库)(周)(期)(的)(高)(度)(。
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