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宋清辉:2018年中国经济主要风险是政策和汇率风险

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月21日 05:50:36
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(不)(过)(,根)(据)(梦)(百)(合)(招)(股)(书)(以)(及)(2016年)(年)(报)(,公)(司)(80%以)(上)(的)(销)(售)(收)(入)(来)(自)(境)(外)(。2013年)(、2014年)(和)(2015年)(,公)(司)(直)(接)(出)(口)(的)(外)(销)(收)(入)(分)(别)(为)(8.72亿)(元)(、10.61亿)(元)(及)(12.01亿)(元)(,占)(同)(期)(主)(营)(业)(务)(收)(入)(的)(比)(例)(分)(别)(为)(91.62%、91.63%及)(87.34%;2016年)(,公)(司)(实)(现)(境)(外)(收)(入)(14.49亿)(元)(,虽)(然)(所)(占)(主)(营)(业)(务)(收)(入)(比)(重)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,但)(仍)(高)(达)(84.10%。
大)(部)(分)(收)(入)(来)(自)(境)(外)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,汇)(率)(及)(出)(口)(退)(税)(成)(为)(影)(响)(梦)(百)(合)(业)(绩)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。本)(报)(记)(者)(梳)(理)(财)(报)(发)(现)(,2017年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(公)(司)(因)(汇)(率)(变)(动)(对)(现)(金)(及)(现)(金)(等)(价)(物)(的)(影)(响)(额)(就)(高)(达)(-2366.82万)(元)(。公)(司)(方)(面)(也)(表)(示)(,当)(人)(民)(币)(处)(于)(升)(值)(趋)(势)(时)(,公)(司)(产)(品)(在)(海)(外)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(力)(将)(会)(下)(降)(,因)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(而)(产)(生)(的)(汇)(兑)(损)(益)(,也)(将)(直)(接)(影)(响)(公)(司)(业)(绩)(。
出)(口)(退)(税)(方)(面)(,梦)(百)(合)(在)(招)(股)(书)(中)(表)(示)(,公)(司)(产)(品)(出)(口)(主)(要)(通)(过)(94042100、94049090类)(别)(,执)(行)(的)(出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(分)(别)(为)(15%、17%,出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(相)(对)(较)(高)(;在)(其)(他)(条)(件)(不)(变)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,若)(出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(下)(降)(1%,则)(对)(公)(司)(的)(利)(润)(总)(额)(产)(生)(大)(幅)(影)(响)(。以)(2015年)(为)(例)(,当)(年)(的)(出)(口)(退)(税)(对)(应)(收)(入)(为)(12.01亿)(元)(,若)(出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(下)(降)(1%,利)(润)(总)(额)(的)(下)(降)(幅)(度)(则)(为)(1201.36万)(元)(,利)(润)(总)(额)(变)(动)(比)(例)(高)(达)(6.11%。
另)(外)(,即)(便)(按)(照)(较)(低)(的)(15%出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(计)(算)(,2015年)(梦)(百)(合)(的)(出)(口)(退)(税)(额)(也)(达)(到)(了)(1.80亿)(元)(,而)(当)(年)(其)(利)(润)(总)(额)(为)(1.96亿)(元)(。2016年)(年)(报)(显)(示)(,公)(司)(收)(到)(的)(税)(费)(返)(还)(额)(为)(9988.69万)(元)(,应)(收)(账)(款)(中)(还)(有)(如)(皋)(市)(国)(税)(局)(未)(付)(的)(1523.03万)(元)(款)(项)(,该)(笔)(款)(项)(均)(系)(应)(收)(出)(口)(退)(税)(款)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,梦)(百)(合)(的)(利)(润)(对)(出)(口)(退)(税)(存)(有)(重)(大)(依)(赖)(,一)(旦)(政)(策)(出)(现)(调)(整)(,业)(绩)(可)(能)(会)(发)(生)(重)(大)(变)(化)(。
“政)(策)(风)(险)(和)(利)(率)(汇)(率)(风)(险)(是)(2018年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(主)(要)(风)(险)(,也)(是)(中)(国)(打)(海)(外)(市)(场)(的)(企)(业)(面)(临)(的)(最)(大)(风)(险)(。”著)(名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(宋)(清)(辉)(在)(接)(受)(本)(报)(记)(者)(采)(访)(时)(指)(出)(,梦)(百)(合)(利)(润)(过)(于)(依)(赖)(出)(口)(退)(税)(会)(带)(来)(诸)(多)(风)(险)(,不)(但)(不)(能)(有)(效)(提)(升)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(,也)(让)(未)(来)(的)(发)(展)(充)(满)(变)(数)(,特)(别)(是)(在)(近)(期)(原)(油)(价)(格)(悄)(然)(上)(涨)(、人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(压)(力)(等)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,梦)(百)(合)(过)(度)(依)(赖)(出)(口)(退)(税)(风)(险)(极)(大)(。
扩)(展)(中)(国)(市)(场)(遇)(困)(
事)(实)(上)(,自)(成)(立)(之)(初)(,梦)(百)(合)(就)(不)(走)(寻)(常)(路)(,直)(接)(把)(目)(光)(瞄)(向)(了)(海)(外)(。因)(为)(公)(司)(所)(生)(产)(的)(记)(忆)(绵)(产)(品)(当)(时)(在)(海)(外)(接)(受)(程)(度)(较)(高)(,国)(内)(市)(场)(则)(空)(间)(不)(大)(。而)(如)(今)(,随)(着)(消)(费)(升)(级)(、国)(内)(市)(场)(需)(求)(的)(不)(断)(发)(展)(,梦)(百)(合)(虽)(然)(“回)(归)(”意)(图)(明)(显)(,却)(碍)(于)(市)(场)(影)(响)(力)(相)(对)(较)(弱)(,想)(要)(争)(得)(国)(内)(市)(场)(的)(一)(席)(之)(地)(难)(度)(不)(小)(。
“记)(忆)(绵)(这)(个)(领)(域)(在)(国)(内)(占)(比)(较)(低)(,但)(在)(国)(外)(,尤)(其)(是)(美)(国)(市)(场)(占)(比)(较)(高)(。梦)(百)(合)(在)(美)(国)(市)(场)(是)(受)(到)(验)(证)(的)(。”中)(国)(家)(居)(家)(装)(电)(商)(专)(家)(王)(建)(国)(告)(诉)(记)(者)(,梦)(百)(合)(在)(国)(内)(主)(板)(上)(市)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(想)(要)(放)(大)(自)(己)(在)(国)(内)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(力)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(也)(说)(明)(记)(忆)(绵)(这)(一)(领)(域)(的)(新)(科)(技)(和)(发)(明)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(上)(有)(一)(定)(的)(爆)(发)(力)(。
公)(开)(信)(息)(显)(示)(,为)(了)(扩)(大)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(力)(,梦)(百)(合)(采)(取)(了)(一)(系)(列)(的)(措)(施)(,包)(括)(:上)(市)(公)(司)(更)(名)(、尝)(试)(招)(商)(开)(店)(、布)(局)(电)(商)(、与)(索)(菲)(亚)(家)(居)(合)(作)(、赞)(助)(围)(棋)(赛)(事)(、跨)(界)(娱)(乐)(营)(销)(等)(。不)(过)(,从)(目)(前)(来)(看)(,这)(些)(举)(措)(尚)(未)(让)(梦)(百)(合)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(爆)(发)(得)(很)(明)(显)(。
对)(比)(“床)(垫)(第)(一)(股)(”喜)(临)(门)((603008.SH)发)(现)(,2017年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(,喜)(临)(门)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(为)(20.47亿)(元)(,净)(利)(润)(为)(2.04亿)(元)(,梦)(百)(合)(在)(这)(两)(项)(上)(均)(略)(低)(于)(喜)(临)(门)(。
公)(司)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(也)(并)(不)(太)(理)(想)(。2015年)(,公)(司)(主)(营)(业)(务)(毛)(利)(率)(为)(34.86%,2016年)(降)(至)(33.6%,2017年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(,毛)(利)(率)(已)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(至)(30.72%。
公)(司)(方)(面)(认)(为)(,影)(响)(综)(合)(毛)(利)(率)(水)(平)(的)(因)(素)(包)(括)(:产)(品)(结)(构)(、汇)(率)(波)(动)(和)(原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(波)(动)(等)(。去)(年)(11月)(,网)(络)(上)(就)(曾)(曝)(出)(梦)(百)(合)(向)(国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(反)(垄)(断)(局)(和)(12358价)(格)(监)(管)(平)(台)(实)(名)(举)(报)(TDI(甲)(苯)(二)(异)(氰)(酸)(酯)()生)(产)(商)(涉)(嫌)(价)(格)(垄)(断)(的)(消)(息)(。公)(司)(董)(事)(长)(倪)(张)(根)(此)(后)(向)(媒)(体)(证)(实)(,由)(于)(上)(游)(原)(材)(料)(生)(产)(企)(业)(的)(暴)(利)(及)(垄)(断)(,严)(重)(影)(响)(了)(下)(游)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(,影)(响)(了)(行)(业)(的)(正)(常)(发)(展)(,此)(举)(是)(为)(了)(挽)(救)(整)(个)(行)(业)(。
国)(信)(证)(券)(研)(报)(指)(出)(,正)(是)(因)(为)(TDI等)(原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,梦)(百)(合)(2017年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(毛)(利)(率)(同)(比)(下)(降)(3.23pc,费)(用)(率)(同)(比)(上)(升)(2.76pct;2017年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(毛)(利)(率)(同)(比)(下)(降)(5.04pct,费)(用)(率)(同)(比)(上)(升)(5.16pct。
王)(建)(国)(认)(为)(,当)(原)(材)(料)(成)(本)(达)(到)(了)(不)(可)(承)(受)(之)(重)(的)(时)(候)(,企)(业)(肯)(定)(是)(要)(有)(所)(反)(应)(,尤)(其)(是)(上)(市)(公)(司)(。梦)(百)(合)(已)(经)(在)(国)(内)(主)(板)(市)(场)(上)(市)(,并)(且)(在)(协)(同)(领)(域)(、上)(下)(游)(服)(务)(型)(企)(业)(、新)(技)(术)(方)(面)(用)(资)(本)(的)(方)(式)(做)(了)(布)(局)(。接)(下)(来)(,可)(能)(会)(通)(过)(并)(购)(等)(动)(作)(来)(扩)(充)(渠)(道)(,打)(通)(线)(上)(线)(下)(。
“对)(于)(梦)(百)(合)(来)(说)(,目)(前)(最)(有)(效)(的)(开)(辟)(国)(内)(市)(场)(的)(举)(措)(可)(能)(是)(强)(化)(电)(商)(渠)(道)(。”在)(宋)(清)(辉)(看)(来)(,强)(化)(电)(商)(渠)(道)(不)(但)(有)(助)(于)(节)(省)(企)(业)(的)(前)(期)(营)(销)(成)(本)(,而)(且)(有)(助)(于)(打)(通)(整)(个)(产)(业)(链)(。原)(标)(题)(:转)(战)(内)(销)(拓)(展)(缓)(慢)(梦)(百)(合)(患)(上)(出)(口)(退)(税)(依)(赖)(症)(?返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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